The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31% on Thursday, according to Tradeweb, its highest since May 2002 and above its 2007 peak. It ended September at 5.27%.
The move extends a climb that began in late summer. The 10-year first closed at 5% on September 15, the day before the Fed raised rates. The two-year yield, which tracks Fed expectations more closely, peaked at 4.92% on September 28.
Three forces are behind it: inflation running at 3.4%, a Fed that has signaled more hikes, and oil that has stayed near or above $90 a barrel since early September.
It is not only a U.S. story. France’s 10-year yield also reached its highest since 2002 this week as Paris prepared a 2027 budget targeting a deficit of 5% of GDP.
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average jumped to 7.28% on Thursday.
Sources
- InsiderFinance, 10-year yield hits 24-year high
- U.S. Treasury, daily yield curve rates, September 2026
- Trading Economics, France 10-year yield
- Freddie Mac, PMMS, Oct 1, 2026
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