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The S&P 500 set a record close last week while the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.40%. Bond investors see a Fed that isn’t done, and housing sits on their side of the trade.
September CPI on Wednesday is the main event for rates. The big banks open earnings season, and existing-home sales land on Tuesday.
The airline lowered its 2026 profit forecast and warned fares will rise if fuel stays expensive. Hurricane Isaias added to the strain on energy markets.
The Nasdaq fell 1.25% after the Financial Times reported OpenAI’s annualized revenue well below figures shared with investors.
Minutes from the September meeting show officials worried that high energy prices could spread into broader inflation.
Hiring slowed sharply and earlier months were revised down. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Long-term borrowing costs climbed past their 2007 peak. Mortgage rates followed.
Core PCE rose 3.0% from a year earlier, and second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2%.
A unanimous vote lifted the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Officials signaled one more increase this year.
A drone attack shut a major Saudi pipeline. A day later, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5% for the first time since 2007.
Energy drove consumer prices higher in August, and core inflation beat forecasts. Markets now expect a Fed hike next week.
Payrolls rose by 162,000, nearly three times the forecast, in a week when oil climbed almost 10%.
A practical guide to the number behind borrowing costs.
Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to open the door to higher rates. Markets took the hint.
